Post by : Saif Nasser
Yemen’s long-running conflict has taken a new turn as southern separatists announced plans to pursue independence from the north, signaling a potential referendum within two years. The announcement comes amid ongoing fighting in key areas, including the Hadramout province, and has highlighted divisions among Gulf allies supporting Yemen’s government.
The Southern Transitional Council (STC), backed by the United Arab Emirates, has made clear its intention to secede from northern Yemen. This marks the strongest signal yet from the southern movement that it seeks full independence. Meanwhile, Saudi-backed forces are conducting operations to regain control of areas seized by the STC, including strategic military bases in Hadramout.
Hadramout is an important province bordering Saudi Arabia and holds cultural and historical significance for the kingdom. Its capture by the STC last month alarmed Saudi authorities, prompting airstrikes and military operations to restore control. Both Saudi and local forces have been involved in the ongoing clashes, and the STC has warned it is prepared to respond forcefully.
The conflict has exposed tensions between two Gulf powers, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, both of which have previously supported Yemen’s internationally recognised government. In recent days, the UAE announced the withdrawal of its remaining troops after Saudi Arabia called for their departure. The move temporarily reduced friction, but differences over control and strategy continue to affect the situation on the ground.
Yemen remains divided after more than a decade of war. The north is largely controlled by the Iran-backed Houthi group, while the south includes a mixture of forces, including the STC and units aligned with the government and Gulf allies. This split has created a fragile balance, with each group vying for control over territories and resources, including key ports, airports, and oil-producing regions.
Saudi Arabia has encouraged dialogue among southern factions to address the growing crisis. Yemen’s presidential council has requested a forum in Riyadh where all southern groups can participate, aiming to find a peaceful resolution. The plan is still in its early stages, and it remains unclear whether the STC or other factions will accept the initiative.
The ongoing unrest has affected everyday life in southern Yemen. Flights at Aden International Airport, a critical gateway for non-Houthi-controlled regions, remain halted amid confusion over responsibility for air traffic restrictions. Civilian movement and commerce have been disrupted, adding to the hardships of a population already burdened by years of conflict and economic instability.
The STC’s announcement and recent clashes underline the fragility of peace in Yemen and the complexities of regional politics. The pursuit of independence in the south, while popular among some local communities, risks escalating violence and further dividing Gulf allies. With key powers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE holding differing interests, the situation could have wider implications for regional stability and international oil markets.
As Yemen faces yet another phase of conflict, diplomacy, restraint, and dialogue will be critical. Any resolution will require careful negotiation among local factions and the Gulf powers backing them. The coming months will determine whether the southern separatists’ ambitions lead to a peaceful path toward autonomy or intensify an already volatile crisis.
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