Fear, Deals, and Control: How Myanmar’s Military Chief Keeps His Grip on Power

Post by : Saif Nasser

Myanmar is holding a general election, but the country’s real power still rests with one man who is not standing for office. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, the head of Myanmar’s military junta, continues to dominate politics through fear, loyalty, and careful power-sharing within the army.

Min Aung Hlaing seized control in February 2021 when he overthrew the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi. The coup pushed Myanmar into a long and violent civil war. Millions of people have been forced from their homes, and many border regions are now under rebel control. The military has faced serious defeats, damaging its image as the country’s strongest force.

Even so, Min Aung Hlaing has stayed firmly in charge. In a recent New Year message, he said he plans to hand over “state responsibilities” after elections are completed. However, major opposition parties are not taking part. Suu Kyi’s party has been dissolved, and several other groups are boycotting the vote. Because of this, the United Nations and human rights groups say the election cannot be considered fair or free.

People who know the general and experts who study Myanmar say his survival comes from more than just weapons. He has been careful in managing relationships inside the military. Loyal officers have been rewarded with top jobs and control over profitable military businesses. At the same time, officers seen as rivals have been arrested, sidelined, or removed from influence.

This strategy has helped Min Aung Hlaing reduce criticism within the armed forces, even as the war has taken a heavy toll. International researchers estimate that more than 16,600 civilians have died since the coup. Public anger has grown, but the military continues to rule through force and fear.

Foreign support has also helped the junta leader remain in power. China, in particular, has continued to engage with Myanmar’s military rulers. Diplomatic backing and limited cooperation have helped the junta regain some confidence after losses on the battlefield. Trusted figures like Foreign Minister Than Swe have worked to slowly repair ties with regional groups such as ASEAN, which had cut off most contact after the coup.

Min Aung Hlaing’s interest in political power did not begin in 2021. Even before the coup, when Myanmar was moving toward civilian rule, he regularly met religious and community leaders. Those familiar with him say he believed the military was the true guardian of the country and felt justified in taking control after Suu Kyi’s party won the 2020 election by a large margin.

Aung San Suu Kyi, now 80, remains in prison under a long sentence on charges she denies. Unlike earlier periods of detention, little is known about her health or location. Attempts by foreign leaders to negotiate her release have failed, with the junta refusing to compromise.

Min Aung Hlaing has recently suggested that he may step back from direct military command and take on a civilian political role after the elections. However, Myanmar’s constitution ensures the military keeps strong control, including over key ministries and lawmakers. Early results show a military-backed party leading, pointing to continued army influence.

Analysts say even if leadership roles change, real power is unlikely to leave the military. Some officers may question Min Aung Hlaing’s leadership, but the system he built protects the army’s position.

For ordinary people in Myanmar, life remains difficult. Fighting continues, the economy is weak, and hopes for democracy are fading. While elections are taking place, many believe true change will not come until fear and military dominance end.