Estonia Warns Russia Is Rebuilding Military Power to Shift Europe’s Balance

Post by : Saif Nasser

Europe is once again facing serious security questions after Estonia’s foreign intelligence service released a new warning about Russia’s military plans. According to its latest annual report, Russia is rebuilding its armed forces at high speed and increasing weapons and ammunition production. Estonian officials believe this effort is not just about the current war in Ukraine but about changing the long-term balance of power across Europe.

Estonia shares a border with Russia and is a member of NATO. Because of its location and history, it closely watches Russian military activity. Its intelligence service says Russia is not likely to attack any NATO country this year or next. However, it warns that Moscow is preparing for future conflicts and wants to slow down Europe’s defense growth in the meantime.

The head of Estonia’s foreign intelligence service explained that European countries are now rearming and investing more in defense after years of lower military spending. He said Russia is worried that within two or three years, Europe could be strong enough to carry out major military action on its own if needed. Because of this, the report says, Russia’s goal is to delay and disrupt Europe’s military progress wherever possible.

One of the strongest concerns in the report is Russia’s fast-growing ammunition production. Estonian analysts say Russian factories are now producing shells and other military supplies at a rate high enough to both support the war in Ukraine and build large stockpiles for future wars. This suggests long-term planning rather than short-term reaction.

The report also describes how a modern Russian attack would likely look if it ever targeted a country like Estonia. Instead of only ground troops, it would likely include drones and other unmanned systems used at the same time on land, in the air, and at sea. That kind of multi-direction attack could create confusion and damage quickly. Estonia says this is why preparation and coordination inside NATO are so important.

Another key part of the warning focuses on Russia’s relationship with the United States. Estonian intelligence believes the Kremlin still sees the U.S. as its main global rival. At the same time, it says Russia may act friendly or cooperative in talks with Washington if it believes this could lead to weaker sanctions or better terms related to Ukraine. The report suggests this approach is tactical, not a real change in long-term goals.

According to the assessment, Russia’s broader aim remains the same: to reduce the influence of NATO and the United States in Europe and reshape the continent’s security system in a way that favors Moscow. Estonian officials warn that short-term diplomatic “thaws” should not be mistaken for lasting peace or trust.

The report also points to China’s growing partnership with Russia. It says China sees Russia as a useful partner in pushing back against Western influence. Russia can supply China with energy and share military research and technology. Estonian analysts warn that giving major concessions to Russia could indirectly strengthen China’s global position as well.

From an editorial point of view, Estonia’s message is not only about danger but about timing. The country is urging Europe to act now rather than later. Defense planning takes years, not months. Weapons systems, trained troops, supply chains, and cyber defenses cannot be built overnight. Waiting until a crisis begins is usually too late.

The warning also highlights a bigger lesson: security is not only about avoiding war today but preventing war tomorrow. Even if no immediate attack is expected, preparation changes the calculations of potential aggressors. When defenses are strong and alliances are united, the risk of conflict often drops.

European leaders now face a hard balance. They must continue to support Ukraine, rebuild their own military strength, protect their economies, and avoid panic at the same time. Clear planning, honest public discussion, and steady cooperation inside NATO will be essential.

Security experts often say that peace is best protected through readiness. Estonia’s report is a reminder that in today’s tense world, defense policy cannot be delayed or ignored.v