Silver Prices Reach Historic Heights as Global Supply Tightens

Post by : Bianca Suleiman

Silver, famously known as the “Devil’s metal,” has hit unprecedented highs this year, soaring past $54 per troy ounce in mid-October before experiencing brief fluctuations. This surge represents one of the sharpest actions the market has encountered in decades, propelled by dwindling supplies, robust industrial demand, and a seasonal uptick from India.

This latest surge began in the early months as gold began its historic climb, surpassing $4,000 an ounce. However, silver’s market, significantly smaller than gold, demonstrated far greater volatility. Traders noted this period as one of the tightest squeezes seen in recent times, with some deliveries even made by air to adhere to timelines.

A Rare Peak in Five Decades

This October surge is the third significant silver peak in 50 years, placing it alongside the notorious Hunt brothers’ squeeze in 1980 and the 2011 rally sparked by U.S. debt ceiling issues. The current pressure is driven by a unique combination of low inventory levels, increasing industrial usage, and substantial demand from India.

India’s Festive Buying Fuels Price Rise

With the arrival of the autumn festive season in India, particularly during Diwali, silver demand surged. Farmers with post-harvest earnings gravitated towards metals as a traditional safeguard of wealth, elevating local silver prices to an unprecedented 170,415 rupees per kilogram.

India consumes about 4,000 metric tons of silver each year and is heavily dependent on imports. However, key suppliers, notably from the U.K., are facing dwindling stocks. London’s vaults have plummeted from over 31,000 metric tons in 2022 to merely 22,000 metric tons this year, marking a significant reduction.

Vaults Draining and Borrowing Costs Skyrocketing

Internally, a more dramatic squeeze is occurring. Traders revealed that the availability of spot silver in major hubs had tightened so considerably that short-term borrowing costs briefly spiked to 200% on an annual basis. Many market players rushed to liquidate positions as liquidity constrained across the exchanges.

Rising Industrial Demand Amplifies Pressure

While jewellery remains a major sector for silver, its industrial application is rapidly increasing. Demand from electric vehicles, solar panels, AI technology, and more is placing silver in a crucial position. Currently, a standard electric vehicle requires approximately 25–50 grams of silver, but the innovative solid-state silver batteries could necessitate up to a kilogram per car, raising concerns over long-term supply stability.

The Silver Institute’s latest data indicate that global mine production has been in decline for a decade, particularly within Central and South America. With a surge in consumption and declining stockpiles, the market is transitioning from surplus to deficit, a shift that could maintain elevated prices throughout the coming year.

A Metal at a Crossroads

Silver now finds itself at a unique crossroads: treasured as a precious metal and essential as an industrial resource. As electrification accelerates globally and inventories continue to deplete, this year’s significant rise is not merely seasonal but signals a substantial shift in the global demand-supply landscape.

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