Post by : Saif Nasser
The world is watching closely as the clock runs down on New START, the last major nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia. With less than two months left before the treaty expires on February 5, Moscow says it is still waiting for an official response from Washington. This delay raises serious concerns about the future of global nuclear stability.
The New START treaty limits the number of strategic nuclear warheads and long-range missiles that both countries can deploy. For more than a decade, it has been one of the few safeguards preventing a full-scale nuclear arms race. Without it, the world’s two largest nuclear powers could expand their arsenals freely, increasing risks during a time already marked by geopolitical tension.
Russian President Vladimir Putin offered a temporary solution in September. He said Russia was ready to voluntarily follow the treaty’s limits for one more year if the United States would agree to the same. Former U.S. President Donald Trump commented in October that Putin’s offer “sounded like a good idea.” But so far, Washington has not given a formal answer.
Sergei Shoigu, the secretary of Russia’s Security Council, expressed concern while speaking in Hanoi. He warned that time was running out and said Moscow’s proposal was a chance to stop the “destructive movement” currently affecting nuclear arms control. His message was clear: the world is moving toward greater danger, and cooperation is urgently needed.
This moment is especially important because Russia and the United States together hold more than 10,000 nuclear warheads—around 87% of the world’s total. China is expanding its arsenal too, though it possesses far fewer weapons. Nuclear powers today are modernising their systems at a rapid pace, making arms control even more vital.
Many of the old arms control treaties between the two countries have already collapsed. The political relationship between Moscow and Washington has worsened over the past decade due to NATO tensions and the war in Ukraine. Each side accuses the other of acting irresponsibly. As a result, trust has disappeared, and agreements that once helped prevent misunderstandings have fallen apart.
The United States’ new National Security Strategy says it wants to “reestablish strategic stability with Russia.” In simple terms, this means reopening talks on nuclear arms limits. But with time running short, meaningful progress must happen soon.
Rose Gottemoeller, the former lead U.S. negotiator for New START, wrote recently that keeping the treaty alive would benefit both sides. She argued that extending the agreement would give Washington more time to understand China’s growing nuclear capabilities, without having to worry about rapid Russian expansion at the same time.
Her point highlights an important truth: global security becomes much harder to manage when major nuclear powers act alone. Without rules and transparency, misunderstandings can happen quickly, and mistakes in nuclear policy can be catastrophic.
The current moment calls for leadership, patience, and practical decision-making from both the U.S. and Russia. If they allow New START to expire without even a temporary extension, the world may enter a period of greater danger and uncertainty. Restarting an arms race would waste resources, increase distrust, and raise the risk of conflict.
As February approaches, the responsibility lies with Washington and Moscow to show that even in difficult times, two powerful nations can still make wise choices for global safety. Their next moves will shape the future of nuclear stability for years to come.
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