Experts Sound Alarm Over Potential Bird Flu Pandemic

Post by : Mara Rahim

In France, health experts are expressing concern that the ongoing bird flu outbreak may escalate into a pandemic potentially more severe than COVID-19 if the virus mutates to enable easy transmission between humans. This warning comes from Marie-Anne Rameix-Welti, medical director at the respiratory infections centre of Institut Pasteur in Paris.

The highly pathogenic avian influenza virus has been prevalent among wildlife, poultry, and some mammals for several years, prompting farmers to cull hundreds of millions of birds. This has led to food supply disruptions and rising prices for eggs and poultry products globally. While human infections are currently rare, scientists urge vigilant monitoring.

Rameix-Welti elaborated that the primary concern is the virus adapting to mammals, potentially facilitating transmission to humans. If it achieves human-to-human spread, it could trigger a global health crisis. She cautioned that such a virus “would be a pandemic virus” and could surpass the severity of COVID-19.

The Institut Pasteur was instrumental during the recent coronavirus pandemic, being among the first European institutions to create and share effective COVID-19 testing methodologies, assisting global surveillance efforts.

While people possess some immunity against common flu strains like H1 and H3, they lack antibodies against the H5 strain currently affecting birds and some mammals. This absence of immunity mirrors the initial phase of COVID-19 when there was no natural resistance among the population. Rameix-Welti noted that flu viruses can pose serious risks not only to vulnerable individuals but also to healthy adults and children, heightening concerns over a mutated bird flu virus's potential impact.

There have been human infections linked to various H5 bird flu strains, including the H5N1 variant currently noted in poultry and dairy cattle in the United States. Most infections have been reported among individuals who had close contact with infected animals. Recently, the U.S. state of Washington recorded its first human case of the H5N5 strain, resulting in the death of a man with preexisting health issues.

Data from the World Health Organization (WHO) indicates that nearly 1,000 human cases of bird flu have been documented globally between 2003 and 2025, chiefly in Egypt, Indonesia, and Vietnam, with a mortality rate of approximately 48%, underscoring the virus's peril.

Despite these troubling figures, the overall risk of a human pandemic remains classified as low. Gregorio Torres, from the World Organisation for Animal Health, reassured the public, saying that while a pandemic scenario is conceivable, the likelihood is still minimal. He advised, “You can happily walk in the forest, eat chicken and eggs, and enjoy your life.” Preparation and vigilant monitoring are key, he stressed.

Rameix-Welti also emphasized that if the bird flu mutates to allow human transmission, the world is better equipped than it was prior to the COVID-19 outbreak. For instance, scientists have developed vaccine candidates and are capable of producing vaccines swiftly. Additionally, there are specific antiviral medications that could combat avian influenza, which would be crucial in mitigating impacts in the event of human spread.

While experts acknowledge the seriousness of the situation, they insist that it is not a cause for undue alarm. Ongoing surveillance, early detection support, and robust response strategies are vital. Topics such as virus mutation, pandemic readiness, public health safety, global surveillance, and avian influenza remain critical focal areas for governments and health organizations.

Currently, individuals can lead their daily lives normally. However, scientists stress the importance of diligent monitoring and international collaboration to avert a potential crisis.

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