Pentagon Report Says China Likely Loaded Over 100 ICBMs, Eyes Taiwan Conflict

Post by : Saif Nasser

A new draft report from the Pentagon indicates that China has likely loaded more than 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in its newest silo fields, signaling a rapid expansion of its nuclear capabilities. The report also says China shows little interest in participating in arms control talks, raising concerns among experts about growing military tensions in the Asia-Pacific region.

According to the report, China has placed solid-fueled DF-31 missiles in three silo fields near its border with Mongolia. While the Pentagon had previously identified the silo locations, the number of loaded missiles was not confirmed until now. U.S. officials have noted that the draft report could still be revised before being presented to lawmakers.

The report also highlights China’s broader military ambitions. It says Beijing expects to be able to fight and win a war over Taiwan by the end of 2027. The document outlines potential strikes up to 1,500-2,000 nautical miles from China, which could disrupt U.S. military presence in the region.

China’s nuclear warhead stockpile is estimated to be in the low 600s as of 2024, reflecting a slower production rate compared to previous years. However, the Pentagon predicts that China could have over 1,000 warheads by 2030. Despite the growth, China maintains that it follows a defensive nuclear strategy and adheres to a no-first-use policy, aiming to use nuclear weapons only in retaliation.

The report comes amid discussions about the expiration of the 2010 New START treaty, the last U.S.-Russia nuclear arms control agreement. Experts warn that the treaty’s end could accelerate a three-way nuclear arms race involving China, Russia, and the United States. Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, said, “More nuclear weapons and an absence of diplomacy will not make anyone safer, neither China, Russia, nor the United States.”

China disputes the Pentagon’s claims of military buildup, describing such reports as attempts to “smear and defame” the country. The Chinese embassy in Washington said that the nation maintains a defensive strategy and keeps its nuclear forces at the minimum necessary for security.

The report also touches on internal developments in China’s military. President Xi Jinping has led a broad anti-corruption campaign targeting the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the defense industry. While the crackdown may affect short-term readiness, the Pentagon believes it could lead to long-term improvements in the PLA’s efficiency. Over the past 18 months, at least 26 senior managers in state-owned arms companies have been investigated or removed from their positions, including in nuclear and shipbuilding sectors.

This expansion of China’s nuclear capabilities comes alongside rising tensions with the United States over Taiwan, the South China Sea, and other regional issues. While China emphasizes self-defense and strategic restraint, the Pentagon report suggests that Washington sees the moves as part of a rapid military modernization that could shift regional and global power balances.

As the world watches closely, experts call for careful diplomacy to prevent misunderstandings and reduce the risks of a nuclear standoff. The next few years will be critical in determining how China, the United States, and other nuclear powers manage their arsenals and engage in arms control negotiations.