Euro Zone Inflation Rises Slightly, Suggesting No New ECB Rate Cuts Soon

Post by : Saif Nasser

Euro zone inflation increased slightly last month, and this small change is enough to influence expectations about future decisions by the European Central Bank. Fresh data from Eurostat shows that inflation in the 20 countries using the euro rose to 2.2%, up from 2.1% in the previous month. While the difference looks small, it matters because the ECB closely watches the direction of prices before making policy changes.

This number remains close to the ECB’s goal of 2%. For most of this year, inflation has stayed near that target as cheaper energy helped balance strong price growth in services. Even though energy costs continue to fall, service-sector prices remain high, keeping overall inflation from dropping further.

Data also showed that core inflation, which removes food and fuel prices, stayed unchanged at 2.4%. This figure is important because it reflects long-term price pressure. Services continued to show fast price growth, while durable goods recorded weaker numbers.

For the ECB, these results confirm what many policymakers have been saying for months: inflation is mostly under control, and there is no need to rush into more rate cuts. Markets also seem to agree with this assessment. Investors now see almost zero chance that the ECB will cut its main deposit rate at its December 18 meeting. Some analysts think there is only a small chance of any rate reduction next year.

The ECB had cut interest rates by a total of 2 percentage points by June this year, but it has kept them unchanged since then. Officials say they now have enough room to wait and watch how prices develop.

There is a possibility that inflation could fall below the ECB’s target early next year because energy costs continue to drop. Natural gas prices are more than 40% lower than they were last year, and oil prices have also fallen. This means energy may become even cheaper in the coming months.

But the ECB usually looks beyond sudden changes in energy prices, viewing them as temporary. Still, some experts worry that very low inflation could harm expectations, making people believe that prices will stay too low. Such thinking can slow economic activity.

In November, energy prices dropped by 0.5% compared to last year. Meanwhile, services inflation was much higher at 3.5%, and unprocessed food grew by 3.3%. Prices of industrial goods rose only 0.6%, a number closely watched because of concerns over cheap imports from China.

Policymakers say that small deviations from the inflation target are acceptable as long as the overall direction remains stable. Confidence among ECB members is supported by positive economic signs across the euro zone. Although the region is not experiencing strong growth, the economy is still performing better than expected during a period of global uncertainty.

Surveys and official data point to steady growth between 1% and 1.5%, which matches the region’s long-term potential. A firm labour market is also helping support spending. New data shows that the unemployment rate rose slightly to 6.4% in October, but it remains near historic lows.

The latest inflation numbers show a complex picture. Prices are not rising too quickly, but they are also not falling fast enough to encourage the ECB to ease borrowing costs. For now, the message from economic data is clear: the ECB will likely keep interest rates steady while it continues to monitor the next phase of inflation.

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