Bangladesh's Political Landscape Fraught with Election Tensions Following Hasina’s Sentencing

Post by : Raina Nasser

Dhaka, Bangladesh – November 19, 2025: The recent death sentence handed down to former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina for alleged crimes against humanity has thrown Bangladesh into a political maelstrom. Since her exile in India on August 5, 2024, her party, the Awami League, is now confronted with a prohibition on political activities ahead of the vital February elections.

Hasina's son has signaled that the Awami League may resort to blocking the elections if the ban on the party remains intact, advocating for an inclusive electoral process to restore stability. Analysts express concern that this deepening division, compounded by a precedent of violent government crackdowns, could lead to a tumultuous and hazardous election period.

Michael Kugelman, a senior fellow at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, remarked, “The interim government has completely stifled the Awami League … the level of polarization is alarming.” He underscored that election-related violence poses a significant threat, particularly considering the dwindling morale of Bangladesh's police forces, which faced intense backlash during the protests of 2024.

In Hasina’s absence, the interim government, headed by Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus, faces substantial scrutiny regarding its ability to conduct legitimate elections. Operating in a politically fractured environment, Yunus must strike a delicate balance to avoid favoring either the Bangladesh Nationalist Party or the Jamaat-e-Islami, the leading Islamist party in the nation.

While Bangladesh has sought Hasina’s extradition, it is improbable that India will comply, permitting Hasina to influence the Awami League's actions from afar. Analysts predict that she will continue to steer her party's plans from India, poised for a potential resurgence if the political landscape shifts.

Former head of the BBC Bengali Service, Sabir Mustafa, remarked on the considerable hurdles faced by the Awami League in Hasina’s absence. “For the party to move forward, significant reforms are needed. Without Hasina's leadership, regaining political efficacy in upcoming elections will be arduous,” Mustafa stated.

The international community has offered mixed responses to the verdict. While Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International have raised red flags over the trial’s fairness, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights acknowledged the ruling's importance for the victims of last year’s brutal crackdown, despite taking a stance against capital punishment.

Kugelman emphasized the critical need for Yunus to foster a peaceful atmosphere leading to the elections in February. “These polls are crucial—marking the first in nearly two decades with high expectations for genuine electoral integrity,” he said. Experts assert that addressing security, bolstering voter confidence, and ensuring equitable participation are pivotal for bolstering Bangladesh’s political stability and reaffirming its international standing.

As political rifts deepen, the ban on the Awami League persists, and Hasina’s remote influence looms, Bangladesh’s path to a credible election appears fraught with challenges. The interim government’s handling of these complexities will shape the nation’s political future for years to come.