IMD Lowers Monsoon Predictions Due to El Nino Concerns

Post by : Shakul

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has lowered its monsoon forecast for 2026, predicting a southwest monsoon that will be weaker than usual. The revised estimate now indicates that rainfall during the June to September monsoon season is expected to be just 90 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA), categorizing it as below normal.

Initially, an April forecast had anticipated 92 percent of the LPA rainfall. The IMD Ministry of Earth Sciences attributed this downgrade to shifts in ocean and atmospheric conditions in the Pacific, with the emergence of El Nino being a significant factor affecting the monsoon.

El Nino is characterized by elevated sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, disrupting global weather patterns and diminishing the strength of India’s monsoon. This results in a reduction in moisture-laden winds and a diversion of rainfall away from the subcontinent, leading to expected lower rain levels across many regions.

While Northwestern India may experience near-normal rainfall, other crucial areas including Central India, South Peninsular India, and Northeast India are forecasted to see below-normal precipitation, which is particularly concerning for the agricultural sectors in these regions.

Experts warn that a more intense El Nino could evolve during the latter half of the monsoon season, particularly from July to September. Such conditions could exacerbate rainfall deficits, posing challenges for reservoirs and irrigation systems vital for sustaining farmer livelihoods.

Forecasts suggest that rainfall will remain subpar across much of India in June, with several areas also expecting above-normal temperatures, which could heighten heat stress on crops and water supplies. Nonetheless, meteorologists are hopeful about a timely arrival of the southwest monsoon over Kerala shortly.

The southwest monsoon is critical for India, accounting for around 70 percent of the country's annual rainfall. This is crucial for crops like rice and oilseeds, and any significant shortage could adversely affect agricultural output, rural economy, and food prices. Authorities will keep a close watch on the evolving El Nino landscape and provide revised forecasts as the monsoon progresses.