What Could a Ukraine Peace Look Like?

Post by : Saif Ali Khan

After more than three years of war, the world is watching closely as U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin prepare to meet in Budapest to discuss peace in Ukraine. Many people are wondering what a peace deal could look like and what both sides might agree to.

The Land Under Dispute

Right now, Russia controls about 19% of Ukraine’s land — an area almost half the size of the United Kingdom. This includes Crimea, which Russia took in 2014, and parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.

Moscow claims these regions are now part of Russia. Ukraine still controls small parts of Donetsk and Luhansk, and it refuses to recognize Russia’s claim. According to reports, Putin wants Ukraine to withdraw completely from the remaining parts of Donetsk that it still holds.

This demand is smaller than what he asked for last year when he wanted Ukraine to give up all of Donbas, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia — a much larger area. Still, for Ukraine, any loss of land would be very painful, as it would mean officially giving up parts of its territory.

Crimea remains one of the hardest issues. Russia sees it as part of its own land, while Ukraine and most of the world still see it as Ukrainian territory. Only a few countries like North Korea, Syria, and Nicaragua have recognized Russia’s claim.

NATO and the Question of Security

One of Russia’s main demands for peace is that NATO — the military alliance led by the United States — stop expanding eastward. Russia fears that Ukraine joining NATO would bring Western troops and weapons right to its border.

Back in 2008, NATO said that Ukraine and Georgia could become members one day. In 2019, Ukraine even changed its constitution to show its goal of joining NATO and the European Union.

Putin says this is one of the reasons the war started. Trump has also said that the U.S. support for Ukraine’s NATO membership was a mistake and caused tension with Russia.

Russia now wants a written promise that NATO will not expand further east. Western countries, however, say every nation has the right to choose its alliances freely.

This issue may become the hardest part of the talks. For Russia, it’s about security. For the West, it’s about independence.

The Idea of Security Guarantees

Ukraine’s biggest concern is safety. It wants to make sure that Russia never attacks again. But Western countries are cautious. They don’t want to sign a deal that could pull them into another war with a nuclear power.

In 2022, when peace talks took place in Istanbul, a draft agreement was nearly approved. It said Ukraine would stay neutral — not joining NATO — and in return, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (the U.S., Britain, France, China, and Russia) would promise to protect Ukraine if it was attacked again.

Russia says this could still be a good model for peace. But Ukraine and many European countries don’t trust Moscow to honor such a promise. They say Russia already broke international law by invading in 2022.

Russia also wants limits on Ukraine’s army and guarantees for the rights of Russian-speaking people and Orthodox Christians in Ukraine.

The Role of the United States and Europe

Trump has hinted that if peace is achieved, he might work to rebuild U.S.-Russia trade ties. This would be a big change from the past few years, when Russia faced heavy Western sanctions.

Russia hopes to regain access to global financial systems and be allowed to use the U.S. dollar again in trade. That could help its struggling economy.

At the same time, European countries are trying to figure out how to help rebuild Ukraine. They are considering using about €210 billion (around $220 billion) worth of Russian assets that are currently frozen in Western banks.

Russia has warned that using its money would be theft. Moscow says it would destroy trust in the euro and lead to years of legal battles. Some Russian officials even said they would use part of this money to rebuild the regions they now control in Ukraine.

What Peace Could Mean for the World

If Trump and Putin do meet and agree on some form of peace, it could bring major changes to global politics. A deal could slow down the growing partnership between Russia and China, which has worried Washington. It could also reshape Europe’s security order after years of tension.

However, many analysts believe peace will not come easily. Ukraine does not want to give up its land, and Russia does not want to pull back its troops. Both sides have lost thousands of lives and billions of dollars.

Even if a ceasefire is reached, lasting peace will depend on strong guarantees — and trust, which is in short supply after years of bloodshed and broken promises.

The Road Ahead

The coming weeks could be a turning point. Trump’s talks with Putin might lead to a breakthrough — or expose how far apart the two sides still are.

For Ukraine, peace must mean survival and independence. For Russia, it must mean security and recognition of its control over some lands. For the world, it means stability after years of crisis.

In the end, any real peace will require compromise, honesty, and patience — three things that have been missing since the war began in February 2022.