Confusion Over India’s Russian Oil Cuts as U.S. Pushes for Trade Changes

Post by : Saif Ali Khan

The United States has said that India has cut its oil imports from Russia by half. But Indian officials and industry sources say that no such change has happened yet. This difference in statements has caused confusion at a time when both countries are trying to solve trade problems and strengthen economic ties.

U.S. Claims Big Reduction in Russian Oil Imports

According to a White House official, India has already reduced its imports of Russian oil by about 50 percent. The official said that talks between U.S. and Indian representatives in Washington this week were “productive,” and that India was cooperating with America’s request to buy less oil from Russia.

The U.S. believes that money earned from oil sales helps Russia fund its war in Ukraine. President Donald Trump’s administration has been asking several countries, including India, to stop or reduce buying Russian crude oil.

Trump has made this issue a major part of his trade talks with India. He has also placed high tariffs — up to 50 percent — on many Indian goods as a way to pressure New Delhi.

India Says No Cuts Yet

However, Indian officials and oil industry sources tell a different story. They say the government has not sent any formal instructions to oil refiners to reduce Russian imports.

In fact, Indian refiners have already placed large orders for November, and even for some shipments that will arrive in December. Because of this, any visible cuts in oil imports — if they happen at all — may only appear in December or January’s data.

Current estimates from the energy data company Kpler show that India’s Russian oil imports could actually rise by 20 percent this month, reaching about 1.9 million barrels per day. This increase comes as Russia has started exporting more oil again after its refineries were hit by Ukrainian drone attacks.

Trump’s Statement Raises Questions

President Trump recently said that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had promised him that India would stop buying Russian oil. But India’s foreign ministry said it was not aware of any such conversation between the two leaders.

The oil ministry has now asked refiners to submit detailed data on their Russian oil imports for November and December, including information on how much has already been shipped or is on the way.

Despite Trump’s claims, the official position in New Delhi seems to be one of caution — no official commitment has been made to reduce Russian imports, though discussions appear to be ongoing.

Falling Oil Prices and Global Impact

Following the news, global oil prices fell slightly. Brent crude dropped to $60.58 per barrel, down by almost one percent. Analysts said that investors were uncertain about how global oil supply might change, especially as Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin prepare for a possible meeting to discuss ending the war in Ukraine.

The United States has long argued that reducing Russian oil exports would weaken Moscow’s ability to fund its military campaign. However, for India, Russian oil remains an important source of affordable energy.

India’s Dependence on Russian Oil

Since Western nations stopped buying Russian oil after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia has been selling its oil at discounted prices. India became the biggest buyer of this cheaper oil, importing about 1.75 million barrels per day, which accounted for 36 percent of its total oil imports in the last six months.

These imports have helped India control inflation and keep fuel prices low for consumers. At the same time, they have angered the U.S. and its allies, who want global support for sanctions against Russia.

Trade Talks Face Trouble

India had hoped for a quick trade deal with the United States because of the friendly relationship between Modi and Trump. But progress has been slow. The U.S. tariffs remain in place, and talks have not reached an agreement.

When Modi visited Trump in February, India promised to double its energy purchases from the U.S. to $25 billion a year. Both sides also set a long-term goal of reaching $500 billion in total trade by 2030.

U.S. officials say that if India cuts down on Russian oil, it could help reduce tariffs and bring them closer to a deal. In return, Indian refiners are planning to buy more liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from American suppliers to balance the trade gap.

Russia Confident in Its Energy Partnership

Meanwhile, Moscow says it is not worried about losing India as a customer. Russian officials said they believe the energy partnership between the two countries will continue. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia can sell oil more cheaply to any nation that faces U.S. pressure to stop buying from Moscow.

For Russia, India remains one of its most important energy markets after sanctions from the West. For India, the decision is difficult — it needs affordable oil to fuel its fast-growing economy but also wants to maintain good relations with Washington.

Looking Ahead

The situation is still unclear. While the U.S. says India is cutting down on Russian oil, the numbers so far show otherwise. It is possible that India will make small reductions later this year to ease pressure from Washington while still protecting its energy interests.

For now, both sides are trying to find a balance between politics and economics. As global tensions rise and oil prices remain unstable, decisions made by India, Russia, and the U.S. in the coming months will shape not only trade ties but also the future of global energy security.